Time Trends

Data that appear to indicate an upward or downward trend over time. – An Introduction to Time-Trend Analysis

Excerpts:

“Herein, we will discuss the accumulating literature for ASD, giving special attention to the relevant aspects of factors that may be related to the neuroimmune interface in the development of ASD, including changes in neuroplasticity.”

Commentary on the article:

“The authors rightly highlight the newest challenging frontier of autism research: the neuroimmune axis alterations. These alterations are first evident in the cells early responsible for immune responses, as they are the precursors for macrophages, dendritic, and microglial cells: monocytes or peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). These cells show strong dysfunctions in ASD children and are committed to a pro-inflammatory state, which in turn result in long-term immune alterations (4). In ASDs, altered PBMCs are responsible for elevated pro-inflammatory cytokine production. The up-regulation of inflammatory cytokines is also reflected in brain centers of autistic patients (5): the consequences are the induction of blood–brain barrier (the immunological interface between peripheral immune system and central nervous system) disruption. Changes in BBB permeability directly influence neural plasticity, connectivity and function, triggering impairments in social interaction, communication, and behavior (3). Immunological abnormalities also influence the gastrointestinal system and the microglial innate immune cells of the central nervous system (6). The authors also discuss the role of autoimmunity in the pathogenesis of autism. Familial or virus/bacteria-infected autoimmunity could be a risk factor for autism. Even if the exact cellular and molecular pathways responsible for the induction of neuroimmune alterations are still to be further clarify, a complex interaction among epigenetic and environmental risk factors (7) could trigger the neuroimmune abnormalities, such as abnormal neuron and glia responses.”

More
  • September 9, 2018

Abstract

Time trends in U.S. autism prevalence from three ongoing datasets [Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, and California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS)] are calculated using two different methods: (1) constant-age tracking of 8 year-olds and (2) age-resolved snapshots. The data are consistent across methods in showing a strong upward trend over time. The prevalence of autism in the CDDS dataset, the longest of the three data records, increased from 0.001% in the cohort born in 1931 to 1.2% among 5 year-olds born in 2012. This increase began around ~ 1940 at a rate that has gradually accelerated over time, including notable change points around birth years 1980, 1990 and, most recently, 2007.

More
  • July 5, 2018

Abstract

Time trends in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and intellectual disability (ID) prevalence from the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act data were computed from 2000 to 2011 for each state and each age from 6 to 17. These trends did not support the hypothesis that diagnostic substitution for ID can explain the ASD rise over recent decades, although the hypothesis appeared more plausible when the data were aggregated across all states and ages. Nationwide ID prevalence declined steeply over the last two decades, but the decline was driven mainly by ~15 states accounting for only one-fourth of the U.S. school population. More commonly, including in the most populous states, ID prevalence stayed relatively constant while ASD prevalence rose sharply.

More
  • June 6, 2017

Results
The CDDS and IDEA data sets are qualitatively consistent in suggesting a strong increase in autism prevalence over recent decades. The quantitative comparison of IDEA snapshot and constant-age tracking trend slopes suggests that ~75-80% of the tracked increase in autism since 1988 is due to an actual increase in the disorder rather than to changing diagnostic criteria. Most of the suspected environmental toxins examined have flat or decreasing temporal trends that correlate poorly to the rise in autism. Some, including lead, organochlorine pesticides and vehicular emissions, have strongly decreasing trends. Among the suspected toxins surveyed, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, aluminum adjuvants, and the herbicide glyphosate have increasing trends that correlate positively to the rise in autism.

More
  • September 5, 2014

Excerpt:
“Autistic disorder change points years are coincident with introduction of vaccines manufactured using human fetal cell lines, containing fetal and retroviral contaminants, into childhood vaccine regimens. This pattern was repeated in the US, UK, Western Australia and Denmark. Thus, rising autistic disorder prevalence is directly related to vaccines manufactured utilizing human fetal cells. Increased paternal age and DSM revisions were not related to rising autistic disorder prevalence.”

More
  • September 1, 2014

Abstract
There is a compelling argument that the occurrence of regressive autism is attributable to genetic and chromosomal abnormalities, arising from the overuse of vaccines, which subsequently affects the stability and function of the autonomic nervous system and physiological systems. That sense perception is linked to the autonomic nervous system and the function of the physiological systems enables us to examine the significance of autistic symptoms from a systemic perspective. Failure of the excretory system influences elimination of heavy metals and facilitates their accumulation and subsequent manifestation as neurotoxins: the long-term consequences of which would lead to neurodegeneration, cognitive and developmental problems. It may also influence regulation of neural hyperthermia. This article explores the issues and concludes that sensory dysfunction and systemic failure, manifested as autism, is the inevitable consequence arising from subtle DNA alteration and consequently from the overuse of vaccines.

More
  • July 24, 2009

This study helps to refute the supposition made by some researchers that autism’s epidemic may only be due to “diagnostic substitution”.

Excerpt: “They have suggested that ‘diagnostic substitution’ accounts for an apparent increase in the incidence of autism in California that is not real. This hypothesized substitution is not supported by proper and detailed analyses of the California data.”

More
  • April 21, 2003